Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Delaware @ Sam Houston DEL @ SHSU

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

5-4  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 7:00 PM ET
Shell Energy Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

1-8  |  Home

26
Key Game
Colin Gallagher
KEY GAME

Colin Gallagher

#9 | Linebacker
@
Bryen Spaulding
KEY GAME

Bryen Spaulding

#14 | Defensive End
Player
Colin Gallagher None-None
Bryen Spaulding None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DELAWARE
0%
📊
SAM HOUSTON
100%
DELAWARE --
SAM HOUSTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
69.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
DELAWARE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Delaware)
DelawareDEL (-3.5) 0 Sam HoustonSHSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delaware Cover

82.3%

Sam Houston Cover

17.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEL -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)

DEL By 1-6 points

13.5%

DEL By 7-13 points

19.3%

SHSU By 1-6 points

8.6%

SHSU By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
41
DELAWARE
28
SAM HOUSTON
Simulated Score
24
DELAWARE
28
SAM HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Delaware Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Sam Houston Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Delaware (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim Sam Houston (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 69.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 DEL @ SHSU 23 - 26
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +33.1% more
Delaware: 21.8 vs Sam Houston: 14.6
Turnovers (L5) +31.1% more
Delaware: 1.6 vs Sam Houston: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +24.6% more
Delaware: 402.2 vs Sam Houston: 303.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Delaware: 0.4 vs Sam Houston: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEL Score 41.0 23
SHSU Score 28.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.6 / 21.8 20.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 144.5 / 90.5 139.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 303.2 / 402.2 352.0 / 433.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.6 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
95%MONEY5%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
SHSU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEL
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
SHSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
DEL
SHSU
DEL
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
TTL
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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