Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UCLA @ Ohio State UCLA @ OSU

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

3-6  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 7:30 PM ET
Ohio Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

9-0  |  Home

48
Key Game
Mateen Bhaghani
KEY GAME

Mateen Bhaghani

#15 | Place kicker
@
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
Player
Mateen Bhaghani None-None
Joe McGuire None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCLA
100%
📊
OHIO STATE
0%
UCLA --
OHIO STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Ohio State)
UCLAUCLA (-3.5) 0 Ohio StateOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCLA Cover

2.3%

Ohio State Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

UCLA By 1-6 points

1.4%

UCLA By 7-13 points

0.5%

OSU By 1-6 points

3.8%

OSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
10
UCLA
38
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
24
UCLA
38
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ohio State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ohio State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ohio State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Ohio State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 UCLA @ OSU 10 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +35.1% more
Ohio State: 453.8 vs UCLA: 335.8
First Downs (L5) +33.7% more
Ohio State: 24.9 vs UCLA: 18.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Ohio State: 0.6 vs UCLA: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +42.1% more
UCLA: 1.2 vs Ohio State: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score 10.0 10
OSU Score 38.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.9 / 18.6 25.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 150.4 / 157.6 222.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 453.8 / 335.8 440.0 / 222.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
OSU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
OSU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
UCLA
OSU
UCLA
ML
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 1-2-1
20% 1-4
0% 0-3-1
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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