Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas @ Georgia TEX @ UGA

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

7-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 7:30 PM ET
Sanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

8-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
Ryan Niblett
KEY GAME

Ryan Niblett

#21 | Running Back
@
Nnamdi Ogboko
KEY GAME

Nnamdi Ogboko

#95 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Ryan Niblett None-None
Nnamdi Ogboko None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS
100%
📊
GEORGIA
0%
TEXAS --
GEORGIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Georgia)
TexasTEX (-3.5) 0 GeorgiaUGA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Cover

4.3%

Georgia Cover

95.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UGA -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UGA)

TEX By 1-6 points

2.5%

TEX By 7-13 points

1.1%

UGA By 1-6 points

5.9%

UGA By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
7
TEXAS
31
GEORGIA
Simulated Score
24
TEXAS
27
GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Georgia Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Georgia (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim Georgia (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 TEX @ UGA 10 - 35
Dec 7, 2024 UGA @ TEX 22 - 19
Oct 19, 2024 UGA @ TEX 30 - 15
Jan 1, 2019 TEX @ UGA 28 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +110.3% more
Georgia: 209.5 vs Texas: 99.6
Turnovers (L5) +39.0% more
Georgia: 0.9 vs Texas: 0.5
First Downs (L5) +36.6% more
Georgia: 26.2 vs Texas: 19.2
Total Yards (L5) +21.0% more
Georgia: 456.1 vs Texas: 377.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 7.0 10
UGA Score 31.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.2 / 19.2 21.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 209.5 / 99.6 128.0 / 23.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 456.1 / 377.0 357.0 / 274.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
UGA
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
UGA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
UGA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +12.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
TEX
UGA
TEX
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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