Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio @ W Michigan OHIO @ WMU

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

6-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Waldo Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

5-4  |  Home

17
Key Game
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
@
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
Player
Magnus Haines None-None
Ryan Millmore None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO
100%
📊
W MICHIGAN
0%
OHIO --
W MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Western Michigan)
OhioOHIO (-3.5) 0 W MichiganWMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio Cover

6.7%

W Michigan Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WMU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

OHIO By 1-6 points

3.8%

OHIO By 7-13 points

1.8%

WMU By 1-6 points

7.9%

WMU By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
10
OHIO
31
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
24
OHIO
28
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI W Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim W Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI W Michigan (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
B
Sim W Michigan (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u46.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
B
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 OHIO @ WMU 13 - 17
Oct 21, 2023 WMU @ OHIO 17 - 20
Oct 15, 2022 OHIO @ WMU 33 - 14
Nov 12, 2019 WMU @ OHIO 37 - 34
Nov 1, 2018 OHIO @ WMU 59 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +18.2% more
Ohio: 422.6 vs Western Michigan: 345.6
Turnovers (L5) +14.6% more
Ohio: 1.6 vs Western Michigan: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.4% more
Ohio: 193.2 vs Western Michigan: 175.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score 10.0 13
WMU Score 31.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 22.4 16.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 175.0 / 193.2 210.0 / 217.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 345.6 / 422.6 336.0 / 287.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
WMU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
WMU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
OHIO
WMU
OHIO
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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