Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Toledo @ Miami OH TOL @ M-OH

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

5-4  |  Road

24
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Yager Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

5-4  |  Home

3
Key Game
Emilio Duran
KEY GAME

Emilio Duran

#36 | Punter
@
Mitch Bolden
KEY GAME

Mitch Bolden

#25 | Defensive Back
Player
Emilio Duran None-None
Mitch Bolden None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TOLEDO
0%
📊
MIAMI OH
100%
TOLEDO --
MIAMI OH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Toledo)
ToledoTOL (-3.5) 0 Miami OHM-OH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Toledo Cover

76.2%

Miami OH Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TOL -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

TOL By 1-6 points

15.3%

TOL By 7-13 points

19.7%

M-OH By 1-6 points

10.7%

M-OH By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
TOLEDO
10
MIAMI (OH)
Simulated Score
24
TOLEDO
27
MIAMI (OH)
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Toledo Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Miami OH Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Toledo (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Sim Miami OH (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 30.0
B
Sim o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 TOL @ M-OH 24 - 3
Oct 5, 2024 M-OH @ TOL 20 - 30
Dec 2, 2023 M-OH @ TOL 23 - 14
Oct 21, 2023 TOL @ M-OH 21 - 17
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +15.5% more
Toledo: 22.2 vs Miami (OH): 18.7
Total Yards (L5) +13.8% more
Toledo: 426.4 vs Miami (OH): 367.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Toledo: 0.5 vs Miami (OH): 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +14.0% more
Miami (OH): 0.8 vs Toledo: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 20.0 24
M-OH Score 10.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 22.2 15.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 162.5 / 142.7 75.0 / 143.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.31 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 367.6 / 426.4 222.0 / 312.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.6 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
M-OH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
M-OH
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
M-OH
TOL
M-OH
TOL
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
20% 1-4
50% 2-2-1
TTL
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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