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NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

2-7  |  Road

45
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

0-9  |  Home

3
Key Game
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
@
Derek Morris
KEY GAME

Derek Morris

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Jake Ference None-None
Derek Morris None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ILLINOIS
0%
📊
UMASS
100%
N ILLINOIS --
UMASS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Northern Illinois)
N IllinoisNIU (-3.5) 0 UMassMASS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Illinois Cover

93.3%

UMass Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NIU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

NIU By 1-6 points

7.9%

NIU By 7-13 points

14.6%

MASS By 1-6 points

3.8%

MASS By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
35
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
14
MASSACHUSETTS
Simulated Score
17
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
31
MASSACHUSETTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI N Illinois Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim UMass Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI N Illinois (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
B
Sim UMass (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 NIU @ MASS 45 - 3
Oct 5, 2024 MASS @ NIU 20 - 34
Nov 2, 2013 NIU @ MASS 63 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.4% more
Northern Illinois: 158.1 vs Massachusetts: 97.3
Total Yards (L5) +12.5% more
Northern Illinois: 274.0 vs Massachusetts: 239.8
Turnovers (L5) +37.1% more
Massachusetts: 1.6 vs Northern Illinois: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIU Score 35.0 45
MASS Score 14.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.5 / 14.4 17.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 97.3 / 158.1 65.0 / 318.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 239.8 / 274.0 262.0 / 433.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
MASS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
MASS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
NIU
MASS
NIU
ML
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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