Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bucks @ Mavericks MIL @ DAL

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

6-4  |  Road

116
FINAL
Mon, Nov 10 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

3-7  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
BUCKS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Milwaukee)
BucksMIL (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucks Cover

75.8%

Mavericks Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-7 points

26.2%

MIL By 8-14 points

25.3%

DAL By 1-7 points

15.3%

DAL By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
124
MILWAUKEE
117
DALLAS
Simulated Score
112
MILWAUKEE
115
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bucks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bucks (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o229.5 Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim u229.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 DAL @ MIL 99 - 123
Nov 10, 2025 MIL @ DAL 116 - 114
Mar 5, 2025 DAL @ MIL 107 - 137
Mar 1, 2025 MIL @ DAL 132 - 117
Oct 17, 2024 MIL @ DAL 84 - 109
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.3%
Milwaukee: 41.1% vs Dallas: 28.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Milwaukee: 50.8% vs Dallas: 44.5%
Steals (L5) +26.0% more
Dallas: 9.9 vs Milwaukee: 7.9
Rebounding (L5) +18.5% more
Dallas: 41.9 vs Milwaukee: 35.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 124.0 116
DAL Score 117.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 41.1 23.0 / 39.0
Assists 22.4 / 23.6 25.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.7 8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 50.8 42.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 63.5 / 60.0 76.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 41.9 / 35.3 52.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.9 / 7.9 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 12.1 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MIL
DAL
MIL
ML
62% 63-39
64% 61-35
54% 44-37
60% 49-32
ATS
67% 68-34
68% 65-31
54% 44-37
60% 49-32
TTL
59% 60-41-1
55% 53-43
100% 81-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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