LE MOYNE
DOLPHINSLEM
1-1 | Road
60
BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
2-0 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
FALCONS
0%
DOLPHINS
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Bowling Green)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BGSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)
LEM By 1-7 points
15.3%
LEM By 8-14 points
5.8%
BGSU By 1-7 points
26.2%
BGSU By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Le Moyne
65
LE MOYNE
Bowling Green
72
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
Le Moyne
65
LE MOYNE
Bowling Green
78
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Falcons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Falcons (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 9, 2025
LEM @ BGSU
60 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+61.3% more
Bowling Green: 13.8
vs
Le Moyne: 8.5
Rebounding (L5)
+25.2% more
Bowling Green: 41.7
vs
Le Moyne: 33.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.0%
Bowling Green: 71.5%
vs
Le Moyne: 66.5%
Assists (L5)
+15.1% more
Le Moyne: 17.7
vs
Bowling Green: 15.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LEM Score
65.0
60
BGSU Score
72.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 34.2
39.0 / 28.0
Assists
15.0 / 17.7
15.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.6 / 2.6
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 50.8
44.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 66.5
94.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
41.7 / 33.3
31.0 / 38.0
Steals
13.8 / 8.5
14.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 14.5
6.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LEM
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-: +0.9
BGSU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LEM
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-: +0.9
BGSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LEM
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +1.1
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
LEM
BGSU
LEM
ML
66%
21-11
68%
21-10
56%
18-14
68%
21-10
ATS
72%
23-9
65%
20-11
56%
18-14
69%
22-10
TTL
53%
17-15
42%
13-18
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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