Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Big Red @ Redbirds COR @ ILST

CORNELL

BIG REDCOR

0-1  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 2:00 PM ET
CEFCU Arena
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

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76
AI Model Win Probability
BIG RED
0%
📊
REDBIRDS
100%
BIG RED --
REDBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
CORNELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Cornell)
Big RedCOR (-3.5) 0 RedbirdsILST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Big Red Cover

81.6%

Redbirds Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around COR -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COR)

COR By 1-7 points

24.3%

COR By 8-14 points

26.8%

ILST By 1-7 points

12.2%

ILST By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
81
CORNELL
72
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
70
CORNELL
75
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Big Red Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redbirds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Big Red (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Redbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 COR @ ILST 65 - 76
Dec 22, 2024 ILST @ COR 80 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +32.8% more
Cornell: 19.1 vs Illinois State: 12.8
Turnovers (L5) +12.9% more
Cornell: 12.3 vs Illinois State: 10.7
Free Throw % (L5) +12.2%
Cornell: 79.9% vs Illinois State: 67.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.0%
Cornell: 42.4% vs Illinois State: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COR Score 81.0 65
ILST Score 72.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 42.4 37.0 / 19.0
Assists 12.8 / 19.1 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.7 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 53.0 47.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 67.7 / 79.9 52.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 33.0 45.0 / 37.0
Steals 4.5 / 4.0 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 12.3 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COR
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.6
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COR
11-15-0 (42.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.6
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
COR
14-12-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +6.5
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
COR
ILST
COR
ML
42% 15-21
44% 12-15
71% 24-10
63% 17-10
ATS
58% 21-15
59% 16-11
71% 24-10
63% 17-10
TTL
58% 21-15
78% 21-6
100% 34-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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