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CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE

MATADORSCSUN

1-1  |  Road

93
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 2:00 PM ET
Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

0-2  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
MATADORS
100%
📊
FIGHTING HAWKS
0%
MATADORS --
FIGHTING HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NORTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (North Dakota)
MatadorsCSUN (-3.5) 0 Fighting HawksUND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Matadors Cover

21.2%

Fighting Hawks Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UND -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UND)

CSUN By 1-7 points

13.7%

CSUN By 8-14 points

4.8%

UND By 1-7 points

25.3%

UND By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
69
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
77
NORTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
68
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
72
NORTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 CSUN @ UND 93 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +32.5% more
North Dakota: 7.9 vs Cal State Northridge: 6.0
Assists (L5) +14.7% more
North Dakota: 14.7 vs Cal State Northridge: 12.8
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
North Dakota: 43.8% vs Cal State Northridge: 40.9%
Rebounding (L5) +25.1% more
Cal State Northridge: 42.6 vs North Dakota: 31.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSUN Score 69.0 93
UND Score 77.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.1 / 32.7 28.0 / 44.0
Assists 14.7 / 12.8 15.0 / 21.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.7 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 40.9 48.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 59.6 / 71.9 65.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 42.6 28.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.9 / 6.0 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 16.0 8.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUN Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
UND
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUN
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +2.4
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UND
CSUN
UND
CSUN
ML
44% 15-19
58% 19-14
50% 17-17
67% 22-11
ATS
50% 17-17
58% 19-14
50% 17-17
67% 22-11
TTL
65% 22-12
58% 19-14
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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