Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Bobcats DEN @ MTST

DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

0-2  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 3:00 PM ET
Worthington Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

1-1  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
100%
📊
BOBCATS
0%
PIONEERS --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Montana State)
PioneersDEN (-3.5) 0 BobcatsMTST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

42.1%

Bobcats Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTST -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)

DEN By 1-7 points

23.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

12.2%

MTST By 1-7 points

26.8%

MTST By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
54
DENVER
56
MONTANA STATE
Simulated Score
68
DENVER
72
MONTANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bobcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 DEN @ MTST 75 - 73
Nov 17, 2024 MTST @ DEN 78 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +59.0% more
Montana State: 8.4 vs Denver: 5.3
Assists (L5) +44.8% more
Montana State: 15.6 vs Denver: 10.8
Blocks (L5) +32.4% more
Montana State: 3.2 vs Denver: 2.4
Field Goal % (L5) +10.2%
Montana State: 53.4% vs Denver: 43.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 54.0 75
MTST Score 56.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.8 / 34.1 29.0 / 50.0
Assists 15.6 / 10.8 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.4 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 53.4 / 43.2 49.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 75.5 71.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 32.4 24.0 / 31.0
Steals 8.4 / 5.3 11.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 14.4 8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
MTST
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTST
DEN
MTST
DEN
ML
52% 16-15
56% 18-14
67% 20-10
59% 19-13
ATS
52% 16-15
66% 21-11
67% 20-10
59% 19-13
TTL
65% 20-11
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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