INDIANA
PACERSIND
1-8 | Road
83
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
5-5 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
WARRIORS
100%
PACERS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
253.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
0.0%
IND By 8-14 points
0.4%
GS By 1-7 points
0.0%
GS By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
147
INDIANA
Golden State
106
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Golden State
115
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-13)
Loss
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o221.5
Loss
Proj Total: 253.0
D
Sim
u221.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 9, 2025
IND @ GS
83 - 114
Nov 1, 2025
GS @ IND
109 - 114
Jan 10, 2025
GS @ IND
96 - 108
Dec 23, 2024
IND @ GS
111 - 105
Mar 22, 2024
IND @ GS
123 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+8.7% more
Indiana: 6.6
vs
Golden State: 6.0
Assists (L5)
+22.9% more
Golden State: 24.6
vs
Indiana: 20.0
Turnovers (L5)
+16.9% more
Golden State: 13.3
vs
Indiana: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.1%
Golden State: 71.0%
vs
Indiana: 61.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
147.0
83
GS Score
106.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 28.0
27.0 / 28.0
Assists
24.6 / 20.0
22.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.2
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 40.3
43.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
71.0 / 61.8
70.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
37.7 / 40.0
50.0 / 53.0
Steals
6.0 / 6.6
11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 11.4
10.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
IND
GS
IND
ML
55%
95-79
48%
47-50
58%
49-35
54%
45-38
ATS
58%
101-73
59%
57-40
58%
49-35
54%
45-38
TTL
77%
134-40
54%
52-45
100%
84-0
100%
83-0
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