HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
5-3 | Road
122
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
6-3 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
BUCKS
100%
ROCKETS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
202.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
23.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
27.2%
MIL By 1-7 points
10.7%
MIL By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
106
HOUSTON
Milwaukee
96
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Houston
109
HOUSTON
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+4)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u232.5
Loss
Proj Total: 202.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
MIL @ HOU
113 - 119
Nov 9, 2025
HOU @ MIL
122 - 115
Feb 25, 2025
MIL @ HOU
97 - 100
Nov 18, 2024
HOU @ MIL
100 - 101
Jan 6, 2024
MIL @ HOU
108 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+30.8% more
Houston: 16.9
vs
Milwaukee: 11.7
Steals (L5)
+28.9% more
Houston: 8.9
vs
Milwaukee: 6.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.7%
Houston: 72.6%
vs
Milwaukee: 60.9%
Blocks (L5)
+9.3% more
Houston: 4.5
vs
Milwaukee: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
106.0
122
MIL Score
96.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.1 / 42.7
45.0 / 38.0
Assists
22.8 / 23.1
25.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.5
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 47.0
56.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
60.9 / 72.6
58.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
39.5 / 43.1
27.0 / 50.0
Steals
6.3 / 8.9
11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 16.9
13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
MIL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
HOU
MIL
HOU
ML
64%
61-35
61%
69-44
60%
49-32
59%
51-35
ATS
68%
65-31
62%
70-43
60%
49-32
59%
51-35
TTL
55%
53-43
51%
58-55
100%
81-0
100%
86-0
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