CAROLINA
HURRICANESCAR
10-4-0 | Road
5
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
8-6-1 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Brandon Bussi
#32 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Morgan Rielly
#44 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi | None-None | 4.00 | 0.800 | -- |
| Morgan Rielly | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.00
GAA
--
0.800
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
HURRICANES
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
CAR By 1 goal
19.7%
CAR By 2-3 goals
29.6%
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Carolina
3
CAROLINA
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Carolina
3
CAROLINA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hurricanes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
CAR @ TOR
4 - 3
Dec 4, 2025
TOR @ CAR
5 - 1
Nov 9, 2025
CAR @ TOR
5 - 4
Apr 13, 2025
TOR @ CAR
4 - 1
Feb 22, 2025
CAR @ TOR
3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+20.9% more
Carolina: 6.8
vs
Toronto: 5.4
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.9% more
Carolina: 31.3
vs
Toronto: 27.3
Power Play % (L5)
+7.5%
Carolina: 26.3%
vs
Toronto: 18.8%
Hits (L5)
+16.0% more
Toronto: 23.8
vs
Carolina: 20.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CAR Score
3.0
5
TOR Score
2.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.1 / 12.8
23.0 / 9.0
Faceoff %
52.9 / 51.3
58.3 / 41.7
Hits
23.8 / 20.5
21.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
18.8 / 26.3
33.3 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
27.3 / 31.3
20.0 / 47.0
Takeaways
5.4 / 6.8
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CAR
TOR
CAR
ML
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
ATS
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
100%
4-0
TTL
100%
4-0
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
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