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SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

0-2  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 4:00 PM ET
The Thunderdome
View Odds Details →

UC SANTA BARBARA

GAUCHOSUCSB

2-0  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
GAUCHOS
0%
SPARTANS --
GAUCHOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
UC SANTA BARBARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (UC Santa Barbara)
SpartansSJSU (-3.5) 0 GauchosUCSB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

8.1%

Gauchos Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSB -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSB)

SJSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

SJSU By 8-14 points

1.4%

UCSB By 1-7 points

16.9%

UCSB By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
35
SAN JOSÉ STATE
49
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
68
SAN JOSÉ STATE
76
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gauchos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gauchos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gauchos (+9) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Gauchos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 84.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 SJSU @ UCSB 74 - 85
Nov 17, 2024 UCSB @ SJSU 64 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +73.2% more
UC Santa Barbara: 3.7 vs San José State: 2.1
Assists (L5) +39.0% more
UC Santa Barbara: 13.6 vs San José State: 9.8
Rebounding (L5) +22.1% more
UC Santa Barbara: 42.3 vs San José State: 34.6
Free Throw % (L5) +2.8%
UC Santa Barbara: 73.0% vs San José State: 70.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 35.0 74
UCSB Score 49.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.7 / 33.8 50.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.6 / 9.8 19.0 / 6.0
Blocks 3.7 / 2.1 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.7 / 42.1 58.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 73.0 / 70.2 74.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 42.3 / 34.6 24.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.3 / 7.1 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 12.4 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UCSB Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UCSB
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
SJSU
UCSB
SJSU
ML
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
ATS
62% 20-12
73% 24-9
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
TTL
47% 15-17
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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