Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pirates @ Spiders ECU @ RICH

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

1-0  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 6:00 PM ET
Robins Center
View Odds Details →

RICHMOND

SPIDERSRICH

1-0  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
0%
📊
SPIDERS
100%
PIRATES --
SPIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (East Carolina)
PiratesECU (-3.5) 0 SpidersRICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

99.7%

Spiders Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ECU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

ECU By 1-7 points

2.2%

ECU By 8-14 points

8.0%

RICH By 1-7 points

0.3%

RICH By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
85
EAST CAROLINA
58
RICHMOND
Simulated Score
69
EAST CAROLINA
74
RICHMOND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Spiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 ECU @ RICH 72 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +55.4% more
East Carolina: 4.3 vs Richmond: 1.9
Turnovers (L5) +17.4% more
East Carolina: 10.7 vs Richmond: 8.8
Assists (L5) +10.6% more
East Carolina: 15.9 vs Richmond: 14.2
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
East Carolina: 43.5% vs Richmond: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 85.0 72
RICH Score 58.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.5 / 28.2 27.0 / 20.0
Assists 14.2 / 15.9 16.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.9 / 4.3 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 43.5 52.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 81.0 / 74.2 81.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 37.5 33.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.5 / 7.0 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 10.7 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
RICH Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
RICH Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
RICH
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICH
ECU
RICH
ECU
ML
53% 17-15
55% 17-14
56% 18-14
55% 17-14
ATS
44% 14-18
52% 16-15
56% 18-14
55% 17-14
TTL
56% 18-14
61% 19-12
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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