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ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

1-0  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Breslin Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

1-0  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
RAZORBACKS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
RAZORBACKS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Michigan State)
RazorbacksARK (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Razorbacks Cover

18.4%

Spartans Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

ARK By 1-7 points

12.2%

ARK By 8-14 points

4.0%

MSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

MSU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
66
ARKANSAS
75
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
71
ARKANSAS
78
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 ARK @ MSU 66 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.6% more
Arkansas: 7.5 vs Michigan State: 5.3
Blocks (L5) +12.0% more
Arkansas: 4.7 vs Michigan State: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5) +8.4%
Arkansas: 81.6% vs Michigan State: 73.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Arkansas: 46.2% vs Michigan State: 42.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARK Score 66.0 66
MSU Score 75.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.7 / 31.6 7.0 / 25.0
Assists 15.2 / 15.4 18.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.7 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 46.2 41.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 73.2 / 81.6 69.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 41.0 / 41.0 45.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.3 / 7.5 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 10.1 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK Advantage
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
MSU
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
ARK
MSU
ARK
ML
71% 25-10
68% 25-12
61% 20-13
81% 25-6
ATS
71% 25-10
70% 26-11
61% 20-13
81% 25-6
TTL
49% 17-18
57% 21-16
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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