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CAL POLY

MUSTANGSCP

1-1  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 10:00 PM ET
Redhawk Center
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE U

REDHAWKSSEA

1-0  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
📊
REDHAWKS
0%
MUSTANGS --
REDHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SEATTLE U
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Seattle U)
MustangsCP (-3.5) 0 RedhawksSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

46.0%

Redhawks Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SEA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

CP By 1-7 points

24.3%

CP By 8-14 points

13.7%

SEA By 1-7 points

26.2%

SEA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
88
CAL POLY
89
SEATTLE U
Simulated Score
62
CAL POLY
75
SEATTLE U
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Redhawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redhawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Redhawks (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Redhawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o164.5 Loss
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 CP @ SEA 73 - 71
Nov 14, 2024 SEA @ CP 71 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.3% more
Seattle U: 4.4 vs Cal Poly: 3.0
Assists (L5) +39.5% more
Cal Poly: 18.4 vs Seattle U: 11.1
Rebounding (L5) +15.1% more
Cal Poly: 39.1 vs Seattle U: 33.2
Turnovers (L5) +13.9% more
Cal Poly: 13.4 vs Seattle U: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CP Score 88.0 73
SEA Score 89.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 35.8 28.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.1 / 18.4 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.4 / 3.0 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 44.3 46.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 66.4 / 71.3 36.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 39.1 32.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.8 / 8.5 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 13.4 17.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
SEA Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
SEA
15-17-1 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.8
SEA
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: -4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
CP
SEA
CP
ML
46% 16-19
58% 19-14
71% 24-10
58% 19-14
ATS
57% 20-15
64% 21-12
71% 24-10
58% 19-14
TTL
49% 17-18
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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