Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / The Citadel @ Ole Miss CIT @ MISS

THE CITADEL

THE CITADELCIT

4-5  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

8-1  |  Home

49
Key Game
Jack Weil
KEY GAME

Jack Weil

#1 | Place kicker
@
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
Player
Jack Weil None-None
Oscar Bird None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
THE CITADEL
100%
📊
OLE MISS
0%
THE CITADEL --
OLE MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-49.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +49.0 points (Ole Miss)
The CitadelCIT (-3.5) 0 Ole MissMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

The Citadel Cover

0.0%

Ole Miss Cover

100.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MISS -49.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

CIT By 1-6 points

0.0%

CIT By 7-13 points

0.0%

MISS By 1-6 points

0.1%

MISS By 7-13 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
0
THE CITADEL
49
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
7
THE CITADEL
52
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ole Miss Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss (+51.5) Win
Proj Spread: -49.0
C
Sim Ole Miss (+51.5) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u63.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Sim u63.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 CIT @ MISS 0 - 49
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +57.6% more
Ole Miss: 21.6 vs The Citadel: 13.7
Total Yards (L5) +53.1% more
Ole Miss: 430.5 vs The Citadel: 281.2
Turnovers (L5) +33.1% more
The Citadel: 1.5 vs Ole Miss: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.3% more
The Citadel: 223.9 vs Ole Miss: 180.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIT Score 0.0 0
MISS Score 49.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 13.7 35.0 / 5.0
Rushing Yards 180.6 / 223.9 151.0 / 83.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.58 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 430.5 / 281.2 603.0 / 106.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
--
MISS Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT
--
MISS Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
--
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
CIT
MISS
CIT
ML
75% 3-1
50% 1-1
100% 4-0
50% 1-1
ATS
50% 2-2
100% 2-0
50% 2-2
100% 2-0
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-2
50% 2-2
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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