LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
7-2 | Road
102
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
4-5 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
HAWKS
0%
LAKERS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
LAL By 1-7 points
18.6%
LAL By 8-14 points
8.0%
ATL By 1-7 points
27.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
111
LOS ANGELES
Atlanta
116
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
108
LOS ANGELES
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u228.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u228.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 13, 2026
ATL @ LAL
116 - 141
Nov 8, 2025
LAL @ ATL
102 - 122
Jan 3, 2025
ATL @ LAL
102 - 119
Dec 6, 2024
LAL @ ATL
132 - 134
Mar 18, 2024
ATL @ LAL
105 - 136
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+35.3% more
Atlanta: 15.2
vs
Los Angeles: 11.2
Blocks (L5)
+34.6% more
Atlanta: 4.5
vs
Los Angeles: 3.3
Rebounding (L5)
+21.6% more
Atlanta: 34.9
vs
Los Angeles: 28.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.2%
Atlanta: 65.1%
vs
Los Angeles: 61.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAL Score
111.0
102
ATL Score
116.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.9 / 32.2
41.0 / 40.0
Assists
18.8 / 20.4
37.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.5 / 3.3
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 51.6
52.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
65.1 / 61.9
91.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 28.7
37.0 / 47.0
Steals
6.9 / 7.6
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 11.2
11.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
Advantage
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
Advantage
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
LAL
ATL
LAL
ML
50%
52-52
61%
68-43
55%
48-40
54%
49-42
ATS
53%
55-48-1
61%
67-43-1
55%
48-40
54%
49-42
TTL
53%
55-48-1
61%
66-43-2
100%
88-0
100%
91-0
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