OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
6-5-3 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
8-5-1 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Samuel Ersson
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Cam York
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson | None-None | 2.84 | 0.786 | -- |
| Cam York | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.84
GAA
--
0.786
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
FLYERS
100%
SENATORS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
17.5%
OTT By 2-3 goals
37.2%
PHI By 1 goal
6.6%
PHI By 2-3 goals
3.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 8, 2026
PHI @ OTT
1 - 2
Feb 5, 2026
OTT @ PHI
2 - 1
Nov 8, 2025
OTT @ PHI
3 - 2
Oct 23, 2025
PHI @ OTT
1 - 2
Apr 13, 2025
PHI @ OTT
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+39.0% more
Ottawa: 5.7
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Blocked Shots (L5)
+12.1% more
Ottawa: 16.9
vs
Philadelphia: 14.8
Hits (L5)
+11.2% more
Ottawa: 25.2
vs
Philadelphia: 22.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+10.8%
Ottawa: 55.6%
vs
Philadelphia: 44.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
4.0
3
PHI Score
2.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.8 / 16.9
10.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
44.8 / 55.6
45.3 / 54.7
Hits
22.4 / 25.2
26.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
1846.0 / 1060.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.7 / 24.7
22.0 / 14.0
Takeaways
3.5 / 5.7
8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
OTT
PHI
OTT
ML
80%
4-1
25%
1-3
40%
2-3
50%
2-2
ATS
40%
2-3
25%
1-3
40%
2-3
75%
3-1
TTL
20%
1-4
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
50%
2-2
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