BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
5-5-4 | Road
3
CAROLINA
HURRICANESCAR
9-4-0 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Pyotr Kochetkov
#52 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 4.08 | 0.879 | -- |
| Pyotr Kochetkov | None-None | 3.05 | 0.864 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.08
GAA
Ldr 3.05
0.879 Ldr
Save %
0.864
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
HURRICANES
0%
SABRES
--
HURRICANES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CAR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
CAR By 1 goal
19.7%
CAR By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Carolina
4
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Carolina
3
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hurricanes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hurricanes
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hurricanes (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Hurricanes (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 19, 2026
BUF @ CAR
1 - 2
Nov 23, 2025
CAR @ BUF
1 - 4
Nov 8, 2025
BUF @ CAR
3 - 6
Apr 8, 2025
CAR @ BUF
0 - 3
Feb 27, 2025
BUF @ CAR
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+122.2% more
Carolina: 6.7
vs
Buffalo: 3.0
Power Play % (L5)
+10.0%
Carolina: 14.5%
vs
Buffalo: 4.5%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.4% more
Carolina: 29.5
vs
Buffalo: 27.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.5%
Carolina: 51.1%
vs
Buffalo: 43.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
3
CAR Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.7 / 16.0
13.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
51.1 / 43.6
51.6 / 48.4
Hits
18.2 / 18.7
25.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
14.5 / 4.5
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.5 / 27.2
35.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
6.7 / 3.0
7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
BUF
CAR
BUF
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
100%
3-0
TTL
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
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