Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bison @ Mountaineers BUCK @ MSM

BUCKNELL

BISONBUCK

1-0  |  Road

73
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Knott Arena
View Odds Details →

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

0-1  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
BISON --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BUCKNELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Bucknell)
BisonBUCK (-3.5) 0 MountaineersMSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bison Cover

57.9%

Mountaineers Cover

42.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BUCK -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUCK)

BUCK By 1-7 points

26.8%

BUCK By 8-14 points

18.6%

MSM By 1-7 points

23.0%

MSM By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
71
BUCKNELL
69
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
68
BUCKNELL
72
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bison Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bison (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 BUCK @ MSM 73 - 62
Nov 13, 2024 MSM @ BUCK 93 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +54.9% more
Bucknell: 3.8 vs Mount St. Mary's: 1.7
Steals (L5) +19.9% more
Bucknell: 6.6 vs Mount St. Mary's: 5.3
Assists (L5) +11.6% more
Bucknell: 14.0 vs Mount St. Mary's: 12.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.0%
Bucknell: 39.4% vs Mount St. Mary's: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUCK Score 71.0 73
MSM Score 69.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 39.4 16.0 / 36.0
Assists 12.3 / 14.0 12.0 / 7.0
Blocks 1.7 / 3.8 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 48.5 39.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 73.6 72.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 37.2 / 36.4 41.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.3 / 6.6 0.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 11.8 15.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
8%MONEY92%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUCK
10-23-0 (30.3%)
Margin: -8.9 ATS +/-: -3.9
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUCK
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -8.9 ATS +/-: -3.9
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BUCK
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.3
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
BUCK
MSM
BUCK
ML
53% 17-15
55% 18-15
61% 19-12
64% 21-12
ATS
62% 20-12
45% 15-18
61% 19-12
64% 21-12
TTL
81% 26-6
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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