Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Patriots WIN @ GMU

WINTHROP

EAGLESWIN

1-0  |  Road

90
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 7:00 PM ET
EagleBank Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

1-0  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
PATRIOTS
0%
EAGLES --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
GEORGE MASON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (George Mason)
EaglesWIN (-3.5) 0 PatriotsGMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

15.9%

Patriots Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GMU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GMU)

WIN By 1-7 points

10.7%

WIN By 8-14 points

3.3%

GMU By 1-7 points

23.0%

GMU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
78
WINTHROP
88
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
68
WINTHROP
72
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 WIN @ GMU 90 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +8.5%
George Mason: 75.5% vs Winthrop: 67.0%
Blocks (L5) +15.3% more
Winthrop: 3.5 vs George Mason: 3.0
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
Winthrop: 38.3 vs George Mason: 32.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIN Score 78.0 90
GMU Score 88.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 37.0 39.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.8 / 13.9 11.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.5 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 44.7 46.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 67.0 72.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 32.6 / 38.3 50.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.7 / 7.9 1.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 11.9 14.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIN
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIN
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WIN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
WIN
GMU
WIN
ML
55% 18-15
70% 23-10
73% 24-9
79% 26-7
ATS
55% 18-15
79% 26-7
73% 24-9
79% 26-7
TTL
58% 19-14
58% 19-14
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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