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ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

0-0  |  Road

64
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Tucker Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

1-0  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
SEMINOLES
0%
HORNETS --
SEMINOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Florida State)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 SeminolesFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

3.6%

Seminoles Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

ALST By 1-7 points

2.7%

ALST By 8-14 points

0.5%

FSU By 1-7 points

10.7%

FSU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
70
ALABAMA STATE
88
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
58
ALABAMA STATE
85
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seminoles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seminoles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seminoles (+24.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Seminoles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 ALST @ FSU 64 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +63.6% more
Florida State: 4.3 vs Alabama State: 2.6
Assists (L5) +39.9% more
Florida State: 14.8 vs Alabama State: 10.6
Turnovers (L5) +22.5% more
Florida State: 10.2 vs Alabama State: 8.4
Free Throw % (L5) +12.7%
Florida State: 69.4% vs Alabama State: 56.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 70.0 64
FSU Score 88.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 29.6 38.0 / 30.0
Assists 14.8 / 10.6 22.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.6 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 38.6 47.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 56.7 93.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 36.7 49.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.4 / 9.5 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 8.4 15.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
FSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
ALST
FSU
ALST
ML
64% 21-12
65% 20-11
59% 19-13
76% 19-6
ATS
55% 18-15
65% 20-11
59% 19-13
76% 19-6
TTL
48% 16-17
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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