FLORIDA GULF COAST
EAGLESFGCU
1-0 | Road
70
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
1-0 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
EAGLES
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
FGCU By 1-7 points
9.3%
FGCU By 8-14 points
2.7%
ILL By 1-7 points
21.6%
ILL By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida Gulf Coast
69
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Illinois
80
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Florida Gulf Coast
65
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Illinois
82
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 7, 2025
FGCU @ ILL
70 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+37.6% more
Illinois: 12.7
vs
Florida Gulf Coast: 9.2
Assists (L5)
+21.2% more
Illinois: 17.2
vs
Florida Gulf Coast: 14.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.2%
Illinois: 73.7%
vs
Florida Gulf Coast: 63.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
Illinois: 37.0%
vs
Florida Gulf Coast: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FGCU Score
69.0
70
ILL Score
80.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 30.5
35.0 / 26.0
Assists
17.2 / 14.2
15.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.6
9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 43.8
55.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 63.4
88.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
48.6 / 46.9
51.0 / 30.0
Steals
3.9 / 6.7
0.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 9.2
7.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FGCU
16-18-0
(47.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FGCU
9-22-1
(29.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: +1.3
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
FGCU
ILL
FGCU
ML
65%
24-13
58%
19-14
57%
20-15
67%
22-11
ATS
70%
26-11
61%
20-13
57%
20-15
67%
22-11
TTL
57%
21-16
61%
20-13
100%
35-0
100%
33-0
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