HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
5-2 | Road
110
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
5-2 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
SPURS
0%
ROCKETS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
HOU By 1-7 points
12.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
4.0%
SA By 1-7 points
24.3%
SA By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
109
HOUSTON
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Houston
112
HOUSTON
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (+4)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o224.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u224.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
HOU @ SA
120 - 145
Jan 28, 2026
SA @ HOU
111 - 99
Jan 20, 2026
SA @ HOU
106 - 111
Nov 7, 2025
HOU @ SA
110 - 121
Feb 26, 2025
SA @ HOU
106 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
San Antonio: 51.0%
vs
Houston: 47.5%
Blocks (L5)
+50.8% more
Houston: 4.8
vs
San Antonio: 2.4
Rebounding (L5)
+36.1% more
Houston: 44.1
vs
San Antonio: 28.2
Assists (L5)
+30.2% more
Houston: 22.1
vs
San Antonio: 15.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
109.0
110
SA Score
118.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 40.0
40.0 / 48.0
Assists
15.4 / 22.1
30.0 / 25.0
Blocks
2.4 / 4.8
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.0 / 47.5
46.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
52.5 / 63.9
92.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
28.2 / 44.1
40.0 / 41.0
Steals
5.9 / 7.3
15.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 13.3
21.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
HOU
SA
HOU
ML
60%
111-73
61%
69-44
58%
61-44
59%
51-35
ATS
58%
107-76-1
62%
70-43
58%
61-44
59%
51-35
TTL
74%
134-47-3
51%
58-55
100%
105-0
100%
86-0
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