Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Nuggets GS @ DEN

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

5-4  |  Road

104
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 10:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

5-2  |  Home

129
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
WARRIORS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
246.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

34.5%

Nuggets Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

GS By 1-7 points

27.4%

GS By 8-14 points

21.6%

DEN By 1-7 points

20.1%

DEN By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
125
GOLDEN STATE
121
DENVER
Simulated Score
118
GOLDEN STATE
123
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o230.0 Win
Proj Total: 246.0
D
Sim u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 GS @ DEN 93 - 116
Feb 22, 2026 DEN @ GS 117 - 128
Nov 7, 2025 GS @ DEN 104 - 129
Oct 23, 2025 DEN @ GS 131 - 137
Apr 4, 2025 DEN @ GS 104 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +37.0% more
Golden State: 14.0 vs Denver: 8.8
Blocks (L5) +26.2% more
Golden State: 3.8 vs Denver: 2.8
Steals (L5) +13.9% more
Golden State: 7.0 vs Denver: 6.0
Free Throw % (L5) +12.7%
Golden State: 66.4% vs Denver: 53.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 125.0 104
DEN Score 121.0 129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 39.2 48.0 / 29.0
Assists 20.7 / 22.8 34.0 / 28.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.8 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 46.7 56.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 53.7 / 66.4 84.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 33.0 / 33.6 41.0 / 46.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.0 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 14.0 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
GS
DEN
GS
ML
54% 57-48
55% 95-79
55% 47-39
58% 49-35
ATS
63% 65-38-2
58% 101-73
55% 47-39
58% 49-35
TTL
54% 56-48-1
77% 134-40
100% 86-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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