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THE CITADEL

BULLDOGSCIT

1-0  |  Road

47
FINAL
Thu, Nov 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Conte Forum
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

EAGLESBC

0-1  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
BULLDOGS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Boston College)
BulldogsCIT (-3.5) 0 EaglesBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

30.9%

Eagles Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BC)

CIT By 1-7 points

18.6%

CIT By 8-14 points

8.0%

BC By 1-7 points

27.2%

BC By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
62
THE CITADEL
67
BOSTON COLLEGE
Simulated Score
65
THE CITADEL
82
BOSTON COLLEGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 6, 2025 CIT @ BC 47 - 76
Nov 4, 2024 CIT @ BC 60 - 69
Nov 10, 2023 BC @ CIT 75 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +137.7% more
Boston College: 4.2 vs The Citadel: 1.8
Turnovers (L5) +15.2% more
Boston College: 11.8 vs The Citadel: 10.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Boston College: 30.8% vs The Citadel: 28.7%
Steals (L5) +23.0% more
The Citadel: 8.4 vs Boston College: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIT Score 62.0 47
BC Score 67.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 28.7 18.0 / 19.0
Assists 11.7 / 14.8 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.2 / 1.8 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 41.0 44.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 62.5 / 69.6 61.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 39.1 47.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.5 / 8.4 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 10.2 4.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
BC Advantage
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
BC
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.9
BC
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
CIT
BC
CIT
ML
61% 19-12
59% 19-13
61% 17-11
62% 20-12
ATS
73% 22-8-1
62% 20-12
61% 17-11
64% 21-12
TTL
61% 19-12
53% 17-15
100% 28-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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