Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Highlanders @ Fighting Hawks UCR @ UND

UC RIVERSIDE

HIGHLANDERSUCR

1-0  |  Road

74
FINAL
Thu, Nov 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

0-1  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
📊
FIGHTING HAWKS
0%
HIGHLANDERS --
FIGHTING HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NORTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (North Dakota)
HighlandersUCR (-3.5) 0 Fighting HawksUND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Highlanders Cover

46.0%

Fighting Hawks Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UND -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UND)

UCR By 1-7 points

24.3%

UCR By 8-14 points

13.7%

UND By 1-7 points

26.2%

UND By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
76
UC RIVERSIDE
77
NORTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
69
UC RIVERSIDE
74
NORTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 UND @ UCR 76 - 74
Nov 6, 2025 UCR @ UND 74 - 70
Dec 3, 2023 UND @ UCR 62 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.0% more
North Dakota: 13.1 vs UC Riverside: 9.1
Blocks (L5) +30.9% more
UC Riverside: 3.3 vs North Dakota: 2.3
Free Throw % (L5) +21.3%
UC Riverside: 85.7% vs North Dakota: 64.4%
Assists (L5) +15.7% more
UC Riverside: 16.1 vs North Dakota: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCR Score 76.0 74
UND Score 77.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.6 / 32.0 26.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.5 / 16.1 17.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.3 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 43.5 44.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 64.4 / 85.7 50.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 36.9 29.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.9 / 8.0 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 9.1 10.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
6%MONEY94%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR
14-14-2 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.3
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UND
UCR
UND
UCR
ML
44% 15-19
66% 21-11
50% 17-17
75% 24-8
ATS
50% 17-17
59% 19-13
50% 17-17
75% 24-8
TTL
65% 22-12
66% 21-11
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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