Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Raiders @ Golden Bears WRST @ CAL

WRIGHT STATE

RAIDERSWRST

1-0  |  Road

67
FINAL
Thu, Nov 6 • 10:00 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

1-0  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
0%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
100%
RAIDERS --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
WRIGHT STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Wright State)
RaidersWRST (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

81.6%

Golden Bears Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WRST -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WRST)

WRST By 1-7 points

24.3%

WRST By 8-14 points

26.8%

CAL By 1-7 points

12.2%

CAL By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
88
WRIGHT STATE
79
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
68
WRIGHT STATE
75
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raiders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raiders (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Golden Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 6, 2025 WRST @ CAL 67 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +37.8% more
Wright State: 21.0 vs California: 13.1
Steals (L5) +30.7% more
Wright State: 9.6 vs California: 6.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.4%
Wright State: 36.2% vs California: 25.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Wright State: 51.8% vs California: 47.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WRST Score 88.0 67
CAL Score 79.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.9 / 36.2 24.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.1 / 21.0 11.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.2 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 51.8 42.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 67.7 84.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 37.0 43.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.7 / 9.6 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 13.2 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WRST Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
CAL
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WRST Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
CAL
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WRST
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +3.3
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
WRST
CAL
WRST
ML
61% 20-13
37% 13-22
77% 24-7
63% 22-13
ATS
64% 21-12
46% 16-19
78% 25-7
63% 22-13
TTL
70% 23-10
63% 22-13
100% 32-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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