TARLETON STATE
TEXANSTAR
0-1 | Road
60
LSU
TIGERSLSU
0-0 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
100%
TIGERS
0%
TEXANS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (LSU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)
TAR By 1-7 points
10.7%
TAR By 8-14 points
3.3%
LSU By 1-7 points
23.0%
LSU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tarleton State
58
TARLETON STATE
LSU
68
LSU
Simulated Score
Tarleton State
65
TARLETON STATE
LSU
82
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 5, 2025
TAR @ LSU
60 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.7% more
LSU: 7.3
vs
Tarleton State: 5.7
Turnovers (L5)
+12.3% more
Tarleton State: 14.6
vs
LSU: 12.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.1%
Tarleton State: 72.3%
vs
LSU: 62.2%
Assists (L5)
+10.0% more
Tarleton State: 10.2
vs
LSU: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TAR Score
58.0
60
LSU Score
68.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
24.9 / 28.7
44.0 / 32.0
Assists
9.1 / 10.2
21.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.4 / 3.2
6.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
38.6 / 40.7
72.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
62.2 / 72.3
76.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
30.8 / 30.1
39.0 / 20.0
Steals
7.3 / 5.7
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 14.6
16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
LSU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
Advantage
14-14-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
LSU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
LSU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
TAR
LSU
TAR
ML
62%
20-12
59%
19-13
62%
20-12
66%
21-11
ATS
66%
21-11
69%
22-10
62%
20-12
66%
21-11
TTL
72%
23-9
50%
16-16
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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