Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Bulldogs UNA @ MSST

NORTH ALABAMA

LIONSUNA

0-0  |  Road

62
FINAL
Wed, Nov 5 • 9:00 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

0-0  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
LIONS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Mississippi State)
LionsUNA (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

38.2%

Bulldogs Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

UNA By 1-7 points

21.6%

UNA By 8-14 points

10.7%

MSST By 1-7 points

27.2%

MSST By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
75
NORTH ALABAMA
78
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
58
NORTH ALABAMA
82
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 5, 2025 UNA @ MSST 62 - 86
Nov 14, 2023 UNA @ MSST 54 - 81
Nov 10, 2021 UNA @ MSST 49 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +52.0% more
Mississippi State: 13.9 vs North Alabama: 9.1
Steals (L5) +40.6% more
Mississippi State: 8.1 vs North Alabama: 5.7
Turnovers (L5) +15.0% more
Mississippi State: 11.1 vs North Alabama: 9.7
Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Mississippi State: 45.4% vs North Alabama: 41.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNA Score 75.0 62
MSST Score 78.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 34.7 30.0 / 37.0
Assists 13.9 / 9.1 15.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.9 6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 41.1 44.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 70.8 67.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 39.9 53.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.1 / 5.7 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 9.7 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNA
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
MSST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNA Advantage
10-17-1 (37.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.4
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
UNA
MSST
UNA
ML
66% 21-11
43% 13-17
55% 17-14
57% 16-12
ATS
56% 18-14
60% 18-12
55% 17-14
57% 16-12
TTL
59% 19-13
63% 19-11
100% 31-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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