Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Jets CLE @ NYJ

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

2-6  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Nov 9 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

1-7  |  Home

27
Key Game
Quincy Williams
KEY GAME

Quincy Williams

#5 | Linebacker
@
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
Player
Quincy Williams None-None
Austin McNamara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
100%
📊
JETS
0%
BROWNS --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (New York)
BrownsCLE (-3.5) 0 JetsNYJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

15.9%

Jets Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NYJ -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYJ)

CLE By 1-6 points

7.9%

CLE By 7-13 points

4.7%

NYJ By 1-6 points

12.9%

NYJ By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
13
CLEVELAND
27
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
20
CLEVELAND
24
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jets (+2) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Jets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o38.0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
D
Sim u38.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 CLE @ NYJ 20 - 27
Dec 28, 2023 NYJ @ CLE 20 - 37
Sep 18, 2022 NYJ @ CLE 31 - 30
Dec 27, 2020 CLE @ NYJ 16 - 23
Sep 16, 2019 CLE @ NYJ 23 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +82.6% more
New York: 158.4 vs Cleveland: 86.8
Total Yards (L5) +38.3% more
New York: 329.3 vs Cleveland: 238.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +25.7% more
New York: 5.0 vs Cleveland: 4.0
First Downs (L5) +22.1% more
New York: 18.6 vs Cleveland: 15.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 13.0 20
NYJ Score 27.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 15.3 12.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 170.9 / 151.4 42.0 / 120.0
Rushing Yards 158.4 / 86.8 127.0 / 158.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.27 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 329.3 / 238.1 169.0 / 278.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 4.0 3.6 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
NYJ
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
CLE
NYJ
CLE
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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