UTAH
MAMMOTHUTA
9-4-0 | Road
3
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
7-5-1 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Dmitri Simashev
#26 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitri Simashev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 3.00 | 0.875 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.00
--
Save %
0.875
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAMMOTH
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
MAMMOTH
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
UTA By 1 goal
19.7%
UTA By 2-3 goals
29.6%
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
3
UTAH
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Utah
3
UTAH
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mammoth
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 13, 2026
TOR @ UTA
1 - 6
Nov 5, 2025
UTA @ TOR
3 - 5
Mar 10, 2025
TOR @ UTA
4 - 3
Nov 24, 2024
UTA @ TOR
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+11.9% more
Utah: 30.7
vs
Toronto: 27.1
Power Play % (L5)
+9.0%
Utah: 13.7%
vs
Toronto: 4.7%
Hits (L5)
+65.0% more
Toronto: 26.5
vs
Utah: 16.1
Blocked Shots (L5)
+60.7% more
Toronto: 20.2
vs
Utah: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTA Score
3.0
3
TOR Score
2.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
20.2 / 12.6
8.0 / 6.0
Faceoff %
55.3 / 52.8
54.9 / 45.1
Hits
26.5 / 16.1
15.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
472.0 / 1370.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.1 / 30.7
19.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
4.6 / 4.7
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
UTA
TOR
UTA
ML
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
ATS
0%
0-5
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
TTL
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
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