Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Pirates GASO @ ECU

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

0-0  |  Road

89
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Minges Coliseum
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

0-0  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
PIRATES
0%
EAGLES --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (East Carolina)
EaglesGASO (-3.5) 0 PiratesECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

30.9%

Pirates Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ECU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

GASO By 1-7 points

18.6%

GASO By 8-14 points

8.0%

ECU By 1-7 points

27.2%

ECU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
68
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
73
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
70
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
73
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 GASO @ ECU 89 - 92
Nov 20, 2023 GASO @ ECU 64 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +22.8% more
East Carolina: 3.9 vs Georgia Southern: 3.2
Free Throw % (L5) +15.5%
East Carolina: 79.9% vs Georgia Southern: 64.4%
Turnovers (L5) +17.3% more
Georgia Southern: 11.5 vs East Carolina: 9.5
Steals (L5) +14.9% more
Georgia Southern: 7.6 vs East Carolina: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 68.0 89
ECU Score 73.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 33.3 20.0 / 41.0
Assists 14.9 / 14.7 18.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.2 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 44.2 47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 79.9 / 64.4 63.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 35.5 44.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.5 / 7.6 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 11.5 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
GASO
ECU
GASO
ML
55% 17-14
56% 20-16
55% 17-14
58% 19-14
ATS
52% 16-15
64% 23-13
55% 17-14
58% 19-14
TTL
61% 19-12
61% 22-14
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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