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LONG BEACH STATE

BEACHLBSU

0-0  |  Road

45
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 10:00 PM ET
Viejas Arena
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

0-0  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
100%
📊
AZTECS
0%
BEACH --
AZTECS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Diego State)
BeachLBSU (-3.5) 0 AztecsSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beach Cover

42.1%

Aztecs Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

LBSU By 1-7 points

23.0%

LBSU By 8-14 points

12.2%

SDSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SDSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
74
LONG BEACH STATE
76
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
62
LONG BEACH STATE
75
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aztecs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aztecs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aztecs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Aztecs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 LBSU @ SDSU 45 - 77
Nov 14, 2023 LBSU @ SDSU 76 - 88
Nov 30, 2021 LBSU @ SDSU 47 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +52.0% more
San Diego State: 4.6 vs Long Beach State: 3.0
Steals (L5) +29.1% more
San Diego State: 6.9 vs Long Beach State: 5.3
Assists (L5) +23.6% more
San Diego State: 13.1 vs Long Beach State: 10.6
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
San Diego State: 43.4% vs Long Beach State: 40.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score 74.0 45
SDSU Score 76.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 32.2 48.0 / 21.0
Assists 13.1 / 10.6 16.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.0 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 40.8 43.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 60.8 / 79.1 74.0 / 40.0
Rebounding 29.2 / 34.6 38.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.9 / 5.3 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 15.3 15.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5% Total +/-: +4.7
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
LBSU
SDSU
LBSU
ML
62% 20-12
55% 17-14
72% 23-9
65% 20-11
ATS
69% 22-10
68% 21-10
72% 23-9
65% 20-11
TTL
75% 24-8
61% 19-12
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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