PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
3-4 | Road
107
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
4-3 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
WARRIORS
0%
SUNS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
PHX By 1-7 points
9.3%
PHX By 8-14 points
2.7%
GS By 1-7 points
21.6%
GS By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
113
PHOENIX
Golden State
124
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Golden State
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warriors (-9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.5
Loss
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 17, 2026
GS @ PHX
96 - 111
Feb 5, 2026
GS @ PHX
101 - 97
Dec 20, 2025
PHX @ GS
116 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
GS @ PHX
98 - 99
Nov 4, 2025
PHX @ GS
107 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+24.5% more
Golden State: 23.0
vs
Phoenix: 18.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.9%
Golden State: 44.7%
vs
Phoenix: 37.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Phoenix: 39.4%
vs
Golden State: 35.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Phoenix: 50.5%
vs
Golden State: 46.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
113.0
107
GS Score
124.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 39.4
45.0 / 36.0
Assists
13.9 / 14.6
33.0 / 25.0
Blocks
2.0 / 2.0
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 50.5
49.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
44.7 / 37.8
85.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
23.0 / 18.5
39.0 / 46.0
Steals
3.8 / 4.1
9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 8.8
16.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
PHX
GS
PHX
ML
55%
95-79
57%
60-45
58%
49-35
51%
45-43
ATS
58%
101-73
58%
59-43-3
58%
49-35
51%
45-43
TTL
77%
134-40
59%
61-42-2
100%
84-0
100%
88-0
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