Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Southern Miss @ Arkansas St USM @ ARST

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

6-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 12:00 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

5-4  |  Home

21
Key Game
Reed Harradine
KEY GAME

Reed Harradine

#96 | Place kicker
@
Tony Carter
KEY GAME

Tony Carter

#10 | Defensive End
Player
Reed Harradine None-None
Tony Carter None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTHERN MISS
0%
📊
ARKANSAS ST
100%
SOUTHERN MISS --
ARKANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Southern Miss)
Southern MissUSM (-3.5) 0 Arkansas StARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Southern Miss Cover

69.1%

Arkansas St Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USM -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

USM By 1-6 points

16.5%

USM By 7-13 points

19.3%

ARST By 1-6 points

12.9%

ARST By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
34
SOUTHERN MISS
27
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
24
SOUTHERN MISS
28
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Southern Miss Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arkansas St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Southern Miss (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Arkansas St (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Sim u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 USM @ ARST 27 - 21
Oct 19, 2024 ARST @ USM 44 - 28
Sep 23, 2023 USM @ ARST 37 - 44
Oct 15, 2022 ARST @ USM 19 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.9% more
Southern Miss: 167.7 vs Arkansas State: 132.7
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
Southern Miss: 408.5 vs Arkansas State: 366.4
Turnovers (L5) +64.0% more
Arkansas State: 1.5 vs Southern Miss: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 34.0 27
ARST Score 27.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 20.6 28.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 132.7 / 167.7 119.0 / 172.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.6 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 366.4 / 408.5 456.0 / 528.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.9 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
ARST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
USM
ARST
USM
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
ATS
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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