Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / SMU @ Boston College SMU @ BC

SMU

SMUSMU

6-3  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 12:00 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

1-8  |  Home

13
Key Game
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
@
Andy Quinn
KEY GAME

Andy Quinn

#25 | Place kicker
Player
Wade McSparron None-None
Andy Quinn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SMU
0%
📊
BOSTON COLLEGE
100%
SMU --
BOSTON COLLEGE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (SMU)
SMUSMU (-3.5) 0 Boston CollegeBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SMU Cover

99.7%

Boston College Cover

0.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SMU -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

SMU By 1-6 points

0.9%

SMU By 7-13 points

2.8%

BC By 1-6 points

0.2%

BC By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
41
SMU
3
BOSTON COLLEGE
Simulated Score
24
SMU
31
BOSTON COLLEGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI SMU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Boston College Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI SMU (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Sim Boston College (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 BC @ SMU 16 - 25
Nov 8, 2025 SMU @ BC 45 - 13
Nov 16, 2024 BC @ SMU 28 - 38
Dec 28, 2023 SMU @ BC 14 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +11.2% more
SMU: 362.4 vs Boston College: 321.9
Turnovers (L5) +55.1% more
Boston College: 2.3 vs SMU: 1.5
First Downs (L5) +14.1% more
Boston College: 20.0 vs SMU: 17.5
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Boston College: 0.5 vs SMU: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 41.0 45
BC Score 3.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 17.5 25.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 83.8 / 79.0 106.0 / 222.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.13 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 321.9 / 362.4 390.0 / 574.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.5 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
BC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
BC Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
SMU
BC
SMU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Boston College Hockey Secures Commitment from USNTDP Forward Sam…
si 1 day ago
Brandon Graham's Cryptic Take on Lane Johnson's Absence Raises E…
yahoo 3 days, 19 hours ago
Miami vs Clemson: Unbeaten Hurricanes Visit Tigers in ACC Showdo…
yahoo 4 days, 23 hours ago
Boston College Eyes Turnover Bonanza Against High-Powered SMU
yahoo 6 days, 5 hours ago
Mississippi State vs Alabama: Heavy Rain and Storms Threaten Wee…
yahoo 6 days, 23 hours ago