Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio State @ Purdue OSU @ PUR

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

8-0  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

2-7  |  Home

10
Key Game
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
@
CJ Madden
KEY GAME

CJ Madden

#8 | Defensive End
Player
Joe McGuire None-None
CJ Madden None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO STATE
0%
📊
PURDUE
100%
OHIO STATE --
PURDUE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+28.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Ohio StateOSU (-3.5) 0 PurduePUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio State Cover

2.3%

Purdue Cover

97.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PUR +28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

OSU By 1-6 points

3.8%

OSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

PUR By 1-6 points

1.4%

PUR By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
38
OHIO STATE
10
PURDUE
Simulated Score
17
OHIO STATE
38
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ohio State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Purdue Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Purdue (+28.5) Win
Proj Spread: +28.0
C
Sim Purdue (+28.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 OSU @ PUR 34 - 10
Nov 9, 2024 PUR @ OSU 0 - 45
Oct 14, 2023 OSU @ PUR 41 - 7
Nov 13, 2021 PUR @ OSU 31 - 59
Oct 20, 2018 OSU @ PUR 20 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +25.0% more
Ohio State: 0.6 vs Purdue: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +24.6% more
Ohio State: 444.2 vs Purdue: 334.9
First Downs (L5) +21.3% more
Ohio State: 22.4 vs Purdue: 17.6
Turnovers (L5) +124.0% more
Purdue: 1.8 vs Ohio State: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 38.0 34
PUR Score 10.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 22.4 13.0 / 30.0
Rushing Yards 153.7 / 140.6 92.0 / 170.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.6 0.33 / 0.69
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.32 / 0.68
Total Yards 334.9 / 444.2 186.0 / 473.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
PUR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
PUR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
OSU
PUR
OSU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
25% 1-3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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