Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / FIU @ MTSU FIU @ MTSU

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

3-5  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 3:00 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

1-7  |  Home

30
Key Game
Jai-Ayviauynn Celestine
KEY GAME

Jai-Ayviauynn Celestine

#7 | Defensive Back
@
Jaiyden Thompson
KEY GAME

Jaiyden Thompson

#16 | Linebacker
Player
Jai-Ayviauynn Celestine None-None
Jaiyden Thompson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FIU
100%
📊
MTSU
0%
FIU --
MTSU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
FIUFIU (-3.5) 0 MTSUMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FIU Cover

30.9%

MTSU Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MTSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

FIU By 1-6 points

12.9%

FIU By 7-13 points

9.6%

MTSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

MTSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
17
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
24
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
20
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
34
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI MTSU Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim MTSU Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI MTSU (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim MTSU (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 FIU @ MTSU 56 - 30
Nov 30, 2024 MTSU @ FIU 24 - 35
Nov 11, 2023 FIU @ MTSU 6 - 40
Nov 26, 2022 MTSU @ FIU 33 - 28
Nov 13, 2021 FIU @ MTSU 10 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.9% more
Florida International: 172.0 vs Middle Tennessee: 94.7
Total Yards (L5) +12.0% more
Florida International: 402.6 vs Middle Tennessee: 354.1
Turnovers (L5) +9.0% more
Florida International: 1.5 vs Middle Tennessee: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FIU Score 17.0 56
MTSU Score 24.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 21.0 18.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 94.7 / 172.0 33.0 / 144.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 354.1 / 402.6 364.0 / 401.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
MTSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
MTSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -22.1
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
FIU
MTSU
FIU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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