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GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

1-7  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 4:00 PM ET
Brooks Stadium (SC)
View Odds Details →

COASTAL CAROLINA

COASTALCCU

5-3  |  Home

40
Key Game
Tyler Moore
KEY GAME

Tyler Moore

#27 | Linebacker
@
Ibrahim Diawara
KEY GAME

Ibrahim Diawara

#1 | Defensive End
Player
Tyler Moore None-None
Ibrahim Diawara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA ST
100%
📊
COASTAL
0%
GEORGIA ST --
COASTAL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Coastal Carolina)
Georgia StGAST (-3.5) 0 CoastalCCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia St Cover

3.7%

Coastal Cover

96.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CCU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CCU)

GAST By 1-6 points

2.2%

GAST By 7-13 points

0.9%

CCU By 1-6 points

5.3%

CCU By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
GEORGIA STATE
45
COASTAL CAROLINA
Simulated Score
20
GEORGIA STATE
31
COASTAL CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Coastal Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Coastal Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Coastal (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Sim Coastal (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 GAST @ CCU 27 - 40
Nov 30, 2024 CCU @ GAST 48 - 27
Sep 21, 2023 GAST @ CCU 30 - 17
Sep 22, 2022 CCU @ GAST 41 - 24
Nov 13, 2021 GAST @ CCU 42 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +48.9% more
Coastal Carolina: 206.6 vs Georgia State: 138.7
Turnovers (L5) +20.1% more
Coastal Carolina: 1.7 vs Georgia State: 1.4
First Downs (L5) +20.9% more
Georgia State: 22.2 vs Coastal Carolina: 17.5
Total Yards (L5) +9.1% more
Georgia State: 398.2 vs Coastal Carolina: 362.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 20.0 27
CCU Score 45.0 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 22.2 19.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 206.6 / 138.7 324.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 362.0 / 398.2 444.0 / 423.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
CCU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
CCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
CCU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CCU
GAST
CCU
GAST
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
25% 1-3-1
20% 1-4
50% 2-2-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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