Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Washington @ Wisconsin WASH @ WIS

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

6-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 4:30 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium
View Odds Details →

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

2-6  |  Home

13
Key Game
Luke Dunne
KEY GAME

Luke Dunne

#45 | Punter
@
Tyrell Henry
KEY GAME

Tyrell Henry

#0 | Wide Receiver
Player
Luke Dunne None-None
Tyrell Henry None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON
0%
📊
WISCONSIN
100%
WASHINGTON --
WISCONSIN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Washington)
WashingtonWASH (-3.5) 0 WisconsinWIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington Cover

97.7%

Wisconsin Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WASH -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

WASH By 1-6 points

3.8%

WASH By 7-13 points

8.8%

WIS By 1-6 points

1.4%

WIS By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
38
WASHINGTON
10
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
21
WASHINGTON
24
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Washington Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Wisconsin Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Washington (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Wisconsin (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 WASH @ WIS 10 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +47.9% more
Washington: 407.4 vs Wisconsin: 212.5
First Downs (L5) +46.2% more
Washington: 23.0 vs Wisconsin: 12.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +26.0% more
Washington: 0.5 vs Wisconsin: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.6% more
Washington: 129.0 vs Wisconsin: 103.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WASH Score 38.0 10
WIS Score 10.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 12.4 / 23.0 12.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 103.7 / 129.0 157.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.14 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 212.5 / 407.4 205.0 / 250.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WASH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
WIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WASH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
WIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WASH
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.5
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
WASH
WIS
WASH
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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