Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas St @ Louisiana TXST @ UL

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

3-5  |  Road

39
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 5:00 PM ET
Cajun Field
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

3-6  |  Home

42
Key Game
TJ Burkhalter
KEY GAME

TJ Burkhalter

#11 | Linebacker
@
Tony Sterner
KEY GAME

Tony Sterner

#95 | Place kicker
Player
TJ Burkhalter None-None
Tony Sterner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS ST
0%
📊
LOUISIANA
100%
TEXAS ST --
LOUISIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
71.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Texas State)
Texas StTXST (-3.5) 0 LouisianaUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas St Cover

96.3%

Louisiana Cover

3.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TXST -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

TXST By 1-6 points

5.3%

TXST By 7-13 points

11.3%

UL By 1-6 points

2.2%

UL By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
48
TEXAS STATE
23
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
24
TEXAS STATE
31
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texas St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisiana Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas St (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Sim Louisiana (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o63.5 Win
Proj Total: 71.0
C
Sim u63.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 TXST @ UL 39 - 42
Oct 29, 2024 UL @ TXST 23 - 17
Oct 7, 2023 TXST @ UL 30 - 34
Nov 26, 2022 UL @ TXST 41 - 13
Oct 30, 2021 TXST @ UL 0 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.8% more
Texas State: 1.9 vs Louisiana: 1.5
Total Yards (L5) +20.5% more
Texas State: 462.4 vs Louisiana: 367.6
First Downs (L5) +8.7% more
Texas State: 21.2 vs Louisiana: 19.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 48.0 39
UL Score 23.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 21.2 27.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 173.4 / 183.1 192.0 / 168.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 367.6 / 462.4 384.0 / 528.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.9 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
TXST
UL
TXST
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
75% 3-1-1
20% 1-4
50% 2-2-1
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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