Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Air Force @ San José St AFA @ SJSU

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

2-6  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 6:00 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

3-5  |  Home

16
Key Game
Jaylin Reese
KEY GAME

Jaylin Reese

#45 | Linebacker
@
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
Player
Jaylin Reese None-None
Trent Carrizosa None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AIR FORCE
0%
📊
SAN JOSÉ ST
100%
AIR FORCE --
SAN JOSÉ ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Air Force)
Air ForceAFA (-3.5) 0 San José StSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Air Force Cover

84.1%

San José St Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around AFA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AFA)

AFA By 1-6 points

12.9%

AFA By 7-13 points

19.0%

SJSU By 1-6 points

7.9%

SJSU By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
66
AIR FORCE
52
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
27
AIR FORCE
24
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Air Force Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Air Force Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Air Force (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Air Force (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 118.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 AFA @ SJSU 26 - 16
Sep 7, 2024 SJSU @ AFA 17 - 7
Sep 22, 2023 AFA @ SJSU 45 - 20
Oct 24, 2020 AFA @ SJSU 6 - 17
Sep 27, 2019 SJSU @ AFA 24 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.5% more
Air Force: 265.2 vs San José State: 141.8
Turnovers (L5) +39.9% more
Air Force: 1.5 vs San José State: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +23.7% more
San José State: 516.7 vs Air Force: 417.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AFA Score 66.0 26
SJSU Score 52.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 23.0 23.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 141.8 / 265.2 94.0 / 261.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 516.7 / 417.6 435.0 / 302.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.5 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AFA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
SJSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AFA
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
AFA
SJSU
AFA
ML
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
ATS
20% 1-4
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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