Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sam Houston @ Oregon St SHSU @ ORST

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

0-8  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 10:00 PM ET
Reser Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

2-7  |  Home

17
Key Game
Lyric Smith
KEY GAME

Lyric Smith

#29 | Safety
@
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
Player
Lyric Smith None-None
Caleb Ojeda None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAM HOUSTON
100%
📊
OREGON ST
0%
SAM HOUSTON --
OREGON ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Oregon State)
Sam HoustonSHSU (-3.5) 0 Oregon StORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sam Houston Cover

0.2%

Oregon St Cover

99.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORST -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

SHSU By 1-6 points

0.1%

SHSU By 7-13 points

0.0%

ORST By 1-6 points

0.5%

ORST By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
0
SAM HOUSTON
41
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
13
SAM HOUSTON
41
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oregon St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oregon St (-21) Loss
Proj Spread: -41.0
C
Sim Oregon St (-21) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim o52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 SHSU @ ORST 21 - 17
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +9.7% more
Oregon State: 19.7 vs Sam Houston: 17.9
Total Yards (L5) +11.9% more
Sam Houston: 376.3 vs Oregon State: 331.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 0.0 21
ORST Score 41.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 17.9 28.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 174.7 / 180.8 188.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 331.4 / 376.3 474.0 / 157.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.2 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
ORST Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
SHSU
ORST
SHSU
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
ATS
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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