Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Northwestern @ USC NU @ USC

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

5-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 9:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
View Odds Details →

USC

USCUSC

6-2  |  Home

38
Key Game
Chase Farrell
KEY GAME

Chase Farrell

#20 | Wide Receiver
@
Ryon Sayeri
KEY GAME

Ryon Sayeri

#48 | Punter
Player
Chase Farrell None-None
Ryon Sayeri None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTHWESTERN
100%
📊
USC
0%
NORTHWESTERN --
USC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (USC)
NorthwesternNU (-3.5) 0 USCUSC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Northwestern Cover

41.5%

USC Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

NU By 1-6 points

15.3%

NU By 7-13 points

12.9%

USC By 1-6 points

17.0%

USC By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17
NORTHWESTERN
20
USC
Simulated Score
45
NORTHWESTERN
17
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI USC Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim Northwestern Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI USC (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Sim Northwestern (-14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
A
Sim o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 NU @ USC 17 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +21.9% more
USC: 426.7 vs Northwestern: 350.1
First Downs (L5) +10.0% more
USC: 23.2 vs Northwestern: 21.1
Turnovers (L5) +8.3% more
USC: 1.7 vs Northwestern: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NU Score 17.0 17
USC Score 20.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 21.1 24.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 173.9 / 184.5 173.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 426.7 / 350.1 482.0 / 280.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
USC Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
USC
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +1.5
USC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
NU
USC
NU
ML
100% 6-0
67% 2-1
83% 5-1
75% 3-1
ATS
67% 4-2
33% 1-2
67% 4-2
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 3-3
100% 3-0
50% 3-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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