Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami OH @ Ohio M-OH @ OHIO

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

5-3  |  Road

20
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Peden Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

5-3  |  Home

24
Key Game
Lynel Billups-Williams
KEY GAME

Lynel Billups-Williams

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
Player
Lynel Billups-Williams None-None
Magnus Haines None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI OH
100%
📊
OHIO
0%
MIAMI OH --
OHIO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
23.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Ohio)
Miami OHM-OH (-3.5) 0 OhioOHIO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami OH Cover

41.5%

Ohio Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OHIO -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

M-OH By 1-6 points

15.3%

M-OH By 7-13 points

12.9%

OHIO By 1-6 points

17.0%

OHIO By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
10
MIAMI (OH)
13
OHIO
Simulated Score
24
MIAMI (OH)
27
OHIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Ohio Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim Ohio (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 23.0
B
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 M-OH @ OHIO 20 - 24
Dec 7, 2024 OHIO @ M-OH 38 - 3
Oct 19, 2024 OHIO @ M-OH 20 - 30
Oct 28, 2023 M-OH @ OHIO 30 - 16
Nov 8, 2022 OHIO @ M-OH 37 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +74.0% more
Ohio: 1.4 vs Miami (OH): 0.6
First Downs (L5) +20.0% more
Ohio: 24.1 vs Miami (OH): 20.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.9% more
Ohio: 221.3 vs Miami (OH): 189.3
Total Yards (L5) +16.2% more
Ohio: 464.8 vs Miami (OH): 399.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 10.0 20
OHIO Score 13.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.1 / 20.1 19.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 221.3 / 189.3 137.0 / 109.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 464.8 / 399.9 338.0 / 303.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
OHIO Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
OHIO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
M-OH
OHIO
M-OH
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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