Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UMass @ Akron MASS @ AKR

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

0-8  |  Road

10
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 7:00 PM ET
InfoCision Stadium
View Odds Details →

AKRON

AKRONAKR

3-6  |  Home

44
Key Game
Derek Morris
KEY GAME

Derek Morris

#99 | Place kicker
@
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
Player
Derek Morris None-None
Joseph Castle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UMASS
100%
📊
AKRON
0%
UMASS --
AKRON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
AKRON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Akron)
UMassMASS (-3.5) 0 AkronAKR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UMass Cover

1.3%

Akron Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AKR -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)

MASS By 1-6 points

0.9%

MASS By 7-13 points

0.3%

AKR By 1-6 points

2.5%

AKR By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
MASSACHUSETTS
38
AKRON
Simulated Score
24
MASSACHUSETTS
27
AKRON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Akron Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Akron Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Akron (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
B
Sim Akron (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 MASS @ AKR 10 - 44
Sep 28, 2019 AKR @ MASS 29 - 37
Nov 7, 2015 AKR @ MASS 17 - 13
Nov 18, 2014 MASS @ AKR 6 - 30
Nov 16, 2013 AKR @ MASS 14 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +97.0% more
Akron: 1.9 vs Massachusetts: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +24.8% more
Akron: 343.6 vs Massachusetts: 275.3
First Downs (L5) +18.2% more
Akron: 19.3 vs Massachusetts: 16.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MASS Score 7.0 10
AKR Score 38.0 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 16.3 25.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 112.1 / 107.5 237.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.55 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 343.6 / 275.3 467.0 / 169.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.9 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
AKR
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
AKR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
AKR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AKR
MASS
AKR
MASS
ML
100% 5-0
0% 0-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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